FOLLOW THE CEMENT

POLITICAL CORRUPTION
Problem: How do you quantify illegal campaign contributions in India? Solution: by tracking real-estate developers' use of cement. That huge sums flow, off the books, to Indian politicians at election time is well known, though hard to document. Developers are especially beholden to state-level politicians, because they make key land-use decisions. Because cement is indispensable to construction, the researchers hypothesized that large payoffs to state politicians could be indirectly observed when companies cut back on their cement expenses. They looked at monthly cement consumption from 1995 to 2010, in 17 states with more than 90% of the country's population. Indeed, in the month of a state election, cement consumption declined by 12%-15%. The magnitude of the decrease was larger, 38%, when a state election coincided with a national election—two sets of politicians would have their hands extended. The authors ruled out other possible causes of the decline in consumption, and they noted that cement production wasn't affected.