FORECASTING THE FLU

Scientists using weather-forecasting techniques have come up with a way to predict, weeks in advance, the peak of flu season, which varies widely from year to year and place to place. (click below to read more)


Influenza kills some 35,000 Americans annually. Using previous research associating flu peaks with dry weather, researchers correlated several years' weather and search data from Google GOOG -0.45% Flu Trends (which uses the number of flu-related searches to estimate outbreaks). They were thus able to produce a forecasting technique that can predict new peaks more than seven weeks in advance—at least in New York City, which was the focus of their work. They plan tests elsewhere.

Such early warnings could make it easier to manage outbreaks and possibly reduce their severity.

"Forecasting Seasonal Outbreaks of Influenza," Jeffrey Shaman and Alicia Karspeck, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (November)